What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

David H. Hathaway  Robert M. Wilson 《Solar physics》2004,224(1-2):5-19

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023.  相似文献   

Transient‐state groundwater flow in various geometries with wells at arbitrary positions: analytical methods     

M. W. Roth  C. M Wilson  M. Z. Iqbal 《水文研究》2003,17(17):3519-3530

We have developed a method for analytically solving the porous medium flow equation in many different geometries for horizontal (two‐dimensional), homogeneous and isotropic aquifers containing impermeable boundaries and any number of pumping or injection wells located at arbitrary positions within the system. Solutions and results are presented for rectangular and circular aquifers but the method presented here is easily extendible to many geometries. Results are also presented for systems where constant head boundary conditions can be emulated internal to the aquifer boundary. Recommendations for extensions of the present work are briefly discussed. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

X-ray and ultraviolet observations of the dwarf nova VW Hyi in quiescence     

Dirk Pandel  France A. Córdova  Steve B. Howell 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,346(4):1231-1241

We present an analysis of X-ray and ultraviolet (UV) data of the dwarf nova VW Hyi that were obtained with XMM–Newton during the quiescent state. The X-ray spectrum indicates the presence of an optically thin plasma in the boundary layer that cools as it settles on to the white dwarf. The plasma has a continuous temperature distribution that is well described by a power law or a cooling flow model with a maximum temperature of 6–8 keV. We estimate from the X-ray spectrum a boundary layer luminosity of  8 × 10³⁰ erg s^-1  , which is only 20 per cent of the disc luminosity. The rate of accretion on to the white dwarf is  5 × 10⁻¹² M_⊙ yr⁻¹  , about half of the rate in the disc. From the high-resolution X-ray spectra, we estimate that the X-ray emitting part of the boundary layer is rotating with a velocity of 540 km s⁻¹, which is close to the rotation velocity of the white dwarf but is significantly smaller than the Keplerian velocity. We detect a 60-s quasi-periodic oscillation of the X-ray flux, which is likely to be due to the rotation of the boundary layer. The X-ray and the UV flux show strong variability on a time-scale of ∼1500 s. We find that the variability in the two bands is correlated and that the X-ray fluctuations are delayed by ∼100 s. The correlation indicates that the variable UV flux is emitted near the transition region between the disc and the boundary layer and that accretion rate fluctuations in this region are propagated to the X-ray emitting part of the boundary layer within ∼100 s. An orbital modulation of the X-ray flux suggests that the inner accretion disc is tilted with respect to the orbital plane. The elemental abundances in the boundary layer are close to their solar values.  相似文献   

Imaging the surface of Mercury using ground-based telescopes     

Michael Mendillo  Johan Warell  Sanjay S. Limaye  Jeffrey Baumgardner  Ann Sprague  Jody K. Wilson 《Planetary and Space Science》2001,49(14-15)

We describe and compare two methods of short-exposure, high-definition ground-based imaging of the planet Mercury. Two teams have recorded images of Mercury on different dates, from different locations, and with different observational and data reduction techniques. Both groups have achieved spatial resolutions of <250 km, and the same albedo features and contrast levels appear where the two datasets overlap (longitudes 270–360°). Dark albedo regions appear as mare and correlate well with smooth terrain radar signatures. Bright albedo features agree optically, but less well with radar data. Such confirmations of state-of-the-art optical techniques introduce a new era of ground-based exploration of Mercury's surface and its atmosphere. They offer opportunities for synergistic, cooperative observations before and during the upcoming Messenger and BepiColombo missions to Mercury.  相似文献   

Simulated estimation of hydrological loads from GRACE     

K.-W. Seo  C. R. Wilson 《Journal of Geodesy》2004,78(7-8):442-456

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Elastic radiation from explosively loaded ellipsoidal cavities in an unbounded medium     

L. A. Glenn  A. J. C. Ladd  B. Moran  K. A. Wilson 《Geophysical Journal International》1985,81(1):231-241

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Local potential analysis of MHD instability     

K. K. Sen  S. J. Wilson 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1985,109(1):131-143

In many astrophysical problems, the study of the stability of an atmosphere in the presence of a magnetic field is of importance. In most cases the MHD instabilities of atmospheres are studied by energy principle of Bernsteinet al. (1958). In this paper, a general method for studying the stability of a system subject to MHD equations of conditions has been proposed. This is based on the local potential concept put forward by Glansdorff and Prigogine (1964). The scheme for securing stability criteria has been demonstrated in two particular cases.  相似文献   

Two 100-Mpc-scale structures in the three-dimensional distribution of radio galaxies and their implications     

Kate Brand  Steve Rawlings  Gary J. Hill  Mark Lacy  Ewan Mitchell  Joe Tufts 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,344(1):283-306

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Hard X-ray light curves of high-mass X-ray binaries     

S. Laycock  M. J. Coe  C. A. Wilson  B. A. Harmon  M. Finger 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,338(1):211-218

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Estimation of anisoplanatism in adaptive optics by generalized SCIDAR profiling     

R. W. Wilson  N. J. Wooder  F. Rigal  J. C. Dainty 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,339(2):491-494

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